Opinion Poll by Focus for 360tka, 2–8 December 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 21.5% 19.9–23.2% 19.5–23.7% 19.1–24.2% 18.4–25.0%
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 20.8% 19.3–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.5–23.4% 17.7–24.3%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 13.8% 12.5–15.3% 12.1–15.7% 11.8–16.0% 11.2–16.8%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 6.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 6.1% 5.2–7.1% 5.0–7.4% 4.8–7.7% 4.4–8.2%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Slovensko (EPP) 7.5% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.7% 3.6–7.2%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 3.7% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.1% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–5
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 1 1 1 1 1–2
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Slovensko (EPP) 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Demokrati (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 12% 100%  
4 86% 88% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 8% 100%  
4 92% 92% Last Result, Median
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 46% 100%  
3 54% 54% Median
4 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 81% 100% Median
2 19% 19%  
3 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 98.5% 99.8% Median
2 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 93% 94% Last Result, Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100%  
1 63% 63% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Slovensko (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100%  
1 78% 78% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) – SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 12% 100%  
4 86% 88% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 81% 100% Median
2 19% 19%  
3 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE) – SME RODINA (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations