Opinion Poll by NMS, 4–9 December 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresívne Slovensko (RE) | 0.0% | 24.8% | 23.1–26.6% | 22.6–27.1% | 22.2–27.6% | 21.4–28.5% |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 24.1% | 19.1% | 17.6–20.8% | 17.1–21.2% | 16.8–21.7% | 16.1–22.5% |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 0.0% | 10.7% | 9.5–12.1% | 9.2–12.4% | 8.9–12.8% | 8.4–13.5% |
| REPUBLIKA (ESN) | 0.0% | 9.5% | 8.4–10.8% | 8.1–11.2% | 7.8–11.5% | 7.3–12.1% |
| Slovensko (EPP) | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.2% | 4.7–8.8% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) | 13.2% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.3–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.8–6.1% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.3–6.8% |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| SME RODINA (PfE) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.2–5.2% |
| Magyar Szövetség (EPP) | 6.5% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| Za ľudí (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.6% |
| Slovenská národná strana (PfE) | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.6% |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
| Kresťanská únia (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresívne Slovensko (RE) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 4 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| REPUBLIKA (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| Slovensko (EPP) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) | 2 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SME RODINA (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Magyar Szövetség (EPP) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Za ľudí (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenská národná strana (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kresťanská únia (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Progresívne Slovensko (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 48% | 98% | Last Result |
| 5 | 51% | 51% | Median |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 96% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
REPUBLIKA (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.1% | 99.2% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Slovensko (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 97% | 98% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 54% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 46% | 46% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Magyar Szövetség (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Za ľudí (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenská národná strana (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Kresťanská únia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresívne Slovensko (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 |
| REPUBLIKA (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Progresívne Slovensko (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
REPUBLIKA (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.1% | 99.2% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NMS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4–9 December 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.19%