Opinion Poll by NMS, 9–13 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 23.9% 22.2–25.7% 21.7–26.2% 21.3–26.6% 20.6–27.5%
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 18.4% 16.9–20.0% 16.5–20.5% 16.1–20.9% 15.4–21.7%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 11.5% 10.3–12.9% 9.9–13.3% 9.6–13.6% 9.1–14.3%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.5%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
Slovensko (EPP) 7.5% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.5%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Za ľudí (EPP) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 1.7% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 2 2 2 2–3 2–3
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Slovensko (EPP) 1 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Demokrati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 0 0 0 0 0–1
Za ľudí (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 48% 100%  
5 51% 52% Median
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 53% 100% Median
4 47% 47% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 97% 100% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 14% 100%  
2 86% 86% Median
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 84% 99.5% Last Result, Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Slovensko (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 95% 96% Last Result, Median
2 1.4% 1.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 91% 91% Median
2 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Median
1 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Za ľudí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kresťanská únia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 48% 100%  
5 51% 52% Median
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 14% 100%  
2 86% 86% Median
3 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations