Opinion Poll by CSV, 27–31 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 24.6% 23.0–26.3% 22.5–26.8% 22.1–27.2% 21.4–28.1%
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 22.7% 21.1–24.4% 20.7–24.8% 20.3–25.3% 19.6–26.1%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 13.7% 12.4–15.1% 12.1–15.5% 11.8–15.8% 11.2–16.5%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 8.7% 7.7–9.9% 7.5–10.3% 7.2–10.6% 6.8–11.2%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.4% 4.0–6.7% 3.7–7.2%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 4.9% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.1% 3.8–6.4% 3.5–6.8%
Slovensko (EPP) 7.5% 3.9% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.2% 2.6–5.7%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 3.8% 3.2–4.7% 3.0–4.9% 2.8–5.1% 2.6–5.6%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.2% 2.3–4.4% 2.0–4.8%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.4–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.7%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Slovensko (EPP) 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Demokrati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 15% 100%  
5 82% 85% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 34% 100% Last Result
5 66% 66% Median
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 38% 100%  
3 62% 62% Median
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 21% 100%  
2 79% 79% Last Result, Median
3 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100% Last Result
1 68% 68% Median
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Median
1 30% 30% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Slovensko (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 4% 4% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) – SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 15% 100%  
5 82% 85% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100% Last Result
1 68% 68% Median
2 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE) – SME RODINA (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations