Opinion Poll by NMS, 5–9 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 24.6% 22.9–26.4% 22.4–26.9% 22.0–27.3% 21.2–28.2%
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 22.5% 20.9–24.2% 20.4–24.7% 20.0–25.2% 19.2–26.0%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 10.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.2% 8.7–12.5% 8.2–13.2%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Slovensko (EPP) 7.5% 5.8% 4.9–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Za ľudí (EPP) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 1.7% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 1 1 1 1 0–2
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 1 1 1 1 0–2
Slovensko (EPP) 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 0 0 0 0 0
Demokrati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Za ľudí (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 35% 100%  
5 65% 65% Median
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.5% 100%  
4 69% 99.5% Last Result, Median
5 31% 31%  
6 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.5% 100%  
2 98% 98.5% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 85% 100% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 97% 98% Median
2 2% 2% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 98% 98.7% Last Result, Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Slovensko (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 86% 86% Last Result, Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Median
1 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Za ľudí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kresťanská únia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0 0–1 0–1

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 35% 100%  
5 65% 65% Median
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 85% 100% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations