Opinion Poll by NMS for TV Markíza, 5–9 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 23.8% 22.1–25.6% 21.6–26.1% 21.2–26.5% 20.5–27.4%
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 21.4% 19.8–23.1% 19.3–23.6% 18.9–24.0% 18.2–24.9%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 8.8% 7.7–10.0% 7.4–10.4% 7.2–10.7% 6.7–11.3%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Slovensko (EPP) 7.5% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Za ľudí (EPP) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 1.7% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Slovensko (EPP) 1 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Demokrati (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 0 0 0 0 0–1
Za ľudí (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 30% 100%  
5 67% 70% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 34% 100%  
4 63% 66% Last Result, Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 26% 100%  
2 74% 74% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 34% 100%  
2 66% 66% Median
3 0% 0%  

Slovensko (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 90% 99.5% Last Result, Median
2 9% 9%  
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 96% 97% Last Result, Median
2 1.2% 1.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100%  
1 84% 85% Median
2 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 16%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Median
1 1.0% 1.0% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Za ľudí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kresťanská únia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 30% 100%  
5 67% 70% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 34% 100%  
2 66% 66% Median
3 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 16%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations