Opinion Poll by NMS, 2–6 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 23.2% 21.5–25.0% 21.1–25.5% 20.7–25.9% 19.9–26.8%
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 19.9% 18.4–21.6% 17.9–22.1% 17.5–22.5% 16.8–23.3%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 9.2% 8.1–10.4% 7.8–10.8% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 8.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.3% 6.4–11.0%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 6.9% 5.9–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.5–8.6% 5.0–9.2%
Slovensko (EPP) 7.5% 6.8% 5.8–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.7%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.0% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.7–5.0% 2.4–5.5%
Za ľudí (EPP) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–2.9% 1.0–3.3%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 1.7% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Slovensko (EPP) 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 1 1 1 1 0–2
Demokrati (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Za ľudí (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 77% 99.8% Median
5 22% 22%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 10% 100%  
4 90% 90% Last Result, Median
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 20% 100%  
2 80% 80% Median
3 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 70% 100% Median
2 30% 30%  
3 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 96% 99.8% Median
2 3% 3% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Slovensko (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 98% 99.6% Last Result, Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 98% 98.9% Last Result, Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100% Last Result
1 69% 69% Median
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 4% 4% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Za ľudí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kresťanská únia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 77% 99.8% Median
5 22% 22%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 20% 100%  
2 80% 80% Median
3 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations