Opinion Poll by NMS, 2–7 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 20.9% 19.3–22.6% 18.9–23.1% 18.5–23.5% 17.8–24.4%
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 18.1% 16.7–19.8% 16.2–20.2% 15.9–20.6% 15.2–21.4%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 10.3% 9.2–11.6% 8.8–12.0% 8.6–12.3% 8.1–13.0%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 9.7% 8.6–11.0% 8.3–11.4% 8.0–11.7% 7.5–12.3%
Slovensko (EPP) 7.5% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.3–9.5%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 6.7% 5.8–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.3–8.5% 4.9–9.0%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 6.2% 5.4–7.3% 5.1–7.7% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.5%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.7% 3.6–7.2%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.7%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.8–5.1% 2.5–5.6%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.5%
Za ľudí (EPP) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 1.7% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.4% 0.7–2.8%
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 4 3–4 3–5 3–5
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Slovensko (EPP) 1 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Demokrati (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Za ľudí (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 6% 100%  
4 91% 94% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 72% 100% Median
4 27% 27% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 14% 100%  
2 85% 86% Median
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 8% 100%  
2 92% 92% Median
3 0% 0%  

Slovensko (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 96% 99.8% Last Result, Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 93% 98% Last Result, Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100%  
1 80% 82% Median
2 2% 2% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100% Last Result
1 79% 79% Median
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Median
1 22% 22% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Za ľudí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kresťanská únia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 0% 4 3–4 3–5 3–5
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 6% 100%  
4 91% 94% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 14% 100%  
2 85% 86% Median
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations