Opinion Poll by NMS, 6–10 August 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresívne Slovensko (RE) | 0.0% | 23.9% | 22.2–25.7% | 21.8–26.2% | 21.4–26.6% | 20.6–27.5% |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 24.1% | 17.4% | 15.9–19.0% | 15.5–19.5% | 15.2–19.9% | 14.5–20.7% |
| REPUBLIKA (ESN) | 0.0% | 10.4% | 9.3–11.7% | 8.9–12.1% | 8.7–12.5% | 8.1–13.1% |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 0.0% | 9.2% | 8.1–10.5% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.6–11.2% | 7.1–11.8% |
| Slovensko (EPP) | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.2–9.4% | 6.9–9.8% | 6.6–10.1% | 6.2–10.7% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.5–8.4% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) | 13.2% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.0–6.5% |
| Magyar Szövetség (EPP) | 6.5% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.4–5.5% |
| SME RODINA (PfE) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.2–5.2% |
| Slovenská národná strana (PfE) | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.6–4.3% |
| Za ľudí (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.1–2.8% | 1.0–3.2% |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| Kresťanská únia (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresívne Slovensko (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| REPUBLIKA (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Slovensko (EPP) | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Magyar Szövetség (EPP) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| SME RODINA (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenská národná strana (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Za ľudí (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kresťanská únia (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Progresívne Slovensko (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 67% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 33% | 33% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 42% | 100% | |
| 4 | 58% | 58% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
REPUBLIKA (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.4% | 99.5% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Slovensko (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 11% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 98% | 98.6% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Magyar Szövetség (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenská národná strana (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Za ľudí (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Kresťanská únia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresívne Slovensko (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| REPUBLIKA (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Progresívne Slovensko (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 67% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 33% | 33% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
REPUBLIKA (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.4% | 99.5% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NMS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–10 August 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.56%