Opinion Poll by NMS, 3–7 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 22.1% 20.4–23.8% 20.0–24.3% 19.6–24.7% 18.8–25.6%
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 20.1% 18.5–21.8% 18.1–22.2% 17.7–22.7% 17.0–23.5%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 10.2% 9.0–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.5–12.2% 7.9–12.9%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.1% 7.8–11.5% 7.3–12.1%
Slovensko (EPP) 7.5% 7.1% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 5.7% 4.8–6.8% 4.6–7.0% 4.4–7.3% 4.0–7.8%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.2–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Za ľudí (EPP) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.0%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 1.7% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8%
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Slovensko (EPP) 1 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Demokrati (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Za ľudí (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 75% 98% Median
5 23% 23%  
6 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 32% 100%  
4 67% 68% Last Result, Median
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 95% 95% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 19% 100%  
2 81% 81% Median
3 0% 0%  

Slovensko (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 96% 99.9% Last Result, Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 95% 96% Last Result, Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 86% 86% Median
2 0% 0% Last Result

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 45% 45%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 4% 4% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Za ľudí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kresťanská únia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 0% 2 2 1–2 1–2
SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 75% 98% Median
5 23% 23%  
6 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 95% 95% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations