Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Denník N, 17–21 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresívne Slovensko (RE) | 0.0% | 22.8% | 21.2–24.5% | 20.7–25.0% | 20.3–25.4% | 19.6–26.3% |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 24.1% | 18.4% | 17.0–20.0% | 16.6–20.5% | 16.2–20.9% | 15.5–21.7% |
| REPUBLIKA (ESN) | 0.0% | 10.9% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.4–12.6% | 9.2–13.0% | 8.7–13.6% |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.3–9.4% | 7.0–9.8% | 6.7–10.1% | 6.3–10.7% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.5–9.2% | 6.2–9.5% | 5.8–10.0% |
| Slovensko (EPP) | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.4–8.4% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.9–9.1% | 5.5–9.6% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) | 13.2% | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.5–8.5% | 5.1–9.1% |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.5–5.5% | 3.3–5.8% | 3.0–6.3% |
| SME RODINA (PfE) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.6–4.9% | 2.4–5.4% |
| Magyar Szövetség (EPP) | 6.5% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.6–4.8% | 2.3–5.2% |
| Slovenská národná strana (PfE) | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.6–4.8% | 2.3–5.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresívne Slovensko (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 4 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| REPUBLIKA (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Slovensko (EPP) | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| SME RODINA (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Magyar Szövetség (EPP) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Slovenská národná strana (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Progresívne Slovensko (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 69% | 99.8% | Median |
| 5 | 31% | 31% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 61% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 39% | 39% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
REPUBLIKA (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.4% | 99.7% | Median |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 46% | 100% | |
| 2 | 54% | 54% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 37% | 37% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Slovensko (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 86% | 99.9% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 14% | 14% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 94% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 17% | 17% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Magyar Szövetség (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.7% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 1.3% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenská národná strana (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresívne Slovensko (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| REPUBLIKA (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Progresívne Slovensko (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 69% | 99.8% | Median |
| 5 | 31% | 31% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
REPUBLIKA (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.4% | 99.7% | Median |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Denník N
- Fieldwork period: 17–21 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1053
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.60%