Opinion Poll by NMS, 1–5 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 24.8% 23.1–26.6% 22.6–27.1% 22.2–27.5% 21.4–28.4%
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 17.9% 16.4–19.5% 16.0–20.0% 15.6–20.4% 14.9–21.2%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 11.8% 10.6–13.2% 10.2–13.6% 9.9–13.9% 9.4–14.6%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Slovensko (EPP) 7.5% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.2–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.6%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.3%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Za ľudí (EPP) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 1.7% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Slovensko (EPP) 1 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Demokrati (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Za ľudí (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 42% 100%  
5 54% 58% Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 77% 99.7% Median
4 23% 23% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 94% 100% Median
3 6% 6%  
4 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 47% 100%  
2 53% 53% Median
3 0% 0%  

Slovensko (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 92% 99.2% Last Result, Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 91% 93% Last Result, Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100%  
1 55% 55% Median
2 0% 0% Last Result

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 62% 62% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Median
1 40% 40% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Za ľudí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kresťanská únia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 0% 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 42% 100%  
5 54% 58% Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 94% 100% Median
3 6% 6%  
4 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations