Opinion Poll by NMS, 5–9 November 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 23.1% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.8% 19.8–26.6%
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 16.3% 14.8–17.8% 14.4–18.3% 14.1–18.7% 13.5–19.5%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 12.1% 10.8–13.5% 10.5–13.9% 10.2–14.3% 9.6–15.0%
Slovensko (EPP) 7.5% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 4.9–8.0% 4.5–8.5%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%
Za ľudí (EPP) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 1.7% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 3 3 3–4 3–4 2–4
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Slovensko (EPP) 1 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Demokrati (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Za ľudí (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 72% 99.9% Median
5 28% 28%  
6 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 91% 98% Median
4 6% 6% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 92% 99.9% Median
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

Slovensko (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 13% 100% Last Result
2 87% 87% Median
3 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 91% 100% Median
2 9% 9%  
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 95% 96% Last Result, Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 77% 77% Median
2 0% 0% Last Result

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 82% 82% Median
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Median
1 7% 7% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Za ľudí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kresťanská únia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 0% 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0 0–1 0–1

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 72% 99.9% Median
5 28% 28%  
6 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 92% 99.9% Median
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations