Opinion Poll by NMS, 28 November–2 December 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 22.6% 20.9–24.3% 20.5–24.8% 20.1–25.3% 19.3–26.1%
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 18.3% 16.8–19.9% 16.4–20.4% 16.0–20.8% 15.3–21.6%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 11.9% 10.7–13.3% 10.4–13.7% 10.1–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
Slovensko (EPP) 7.5% 7.6% 6.6–8.7% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.6–10.0%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.7%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.1–7.7% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.5%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–6.9% 4.8–7.2% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.0%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.2–6.6% 4.0–6.8% 3.7–7.3%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.9–5.3% 2.5–5.7%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.7–5.0% 2.4–5.5%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Právo na pravdu (*) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Za ľudí (EPP) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 1.7% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Slovensko (EPP) 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Demokrati (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 0 0 0 0 0–1
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Právo na pravdu (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Za ľudí (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 38% 99.9%  
5 62% 62% Median
6 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 56% 100% Median
4 43% 44% Last Result
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 70% 100% Median
3 30% 30%  
4 0% 0%  

Slovensko (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 87% 100% Last Result, Median
2 13% 13%  
3 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 74% 92% Median
2 19% 19%  
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 76% 98% Last Result, Median
2 22% 22%  
3 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100% Last Result
1 75% 76% Median
2 1.0% 1.0%  
3 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Median
1 41% 41%  
2 0% 0% Last Result

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 2% 2% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Právo na pravdu (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Právo na pravdu (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Za ľudí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kresťanská únia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 38% 99.9%  
5 62% 62% Median
6 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 70% 100% Median
3 30% 30%  
4 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations