Opinion Poll by NMS, 1–5 October 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 19.5% 18.0–21.2% 17.5–21.7% 17.2–22.1% 16.5–22.9%
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 17.8% 16.3–19.4% 15.9–19.9% 15.6–20.3% 14.9–21.1%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 14.2% 12.9–15.7% 12.5–16.2% 12.2–16.5% 11.6–17.3%
Slovensko (EPP) 7.5% 9.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6% 7.3–10.9% 6.9–11.5%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.0–7.6% 4.8–7.8% 4.5–8.4%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–6.9% 4.8–7.2% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.0%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Právo na pravdu (*) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Za ľudí (EPP) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–2.9% 1.0–3.3%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 1.7% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 4 4 3–4 3–4
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Slovensko (EPP) 1 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 1 1 1 1 1
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Demokrati (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 0 0 0 0 0
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Právo na pravdu (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Za ľudí (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 95% 95% Median
5 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 23% 100%  
4 77% 77% Last Result, Median
5 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 95% 95% Median
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Slovensko (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 15% 100% Last Result
2 85% 85% Median
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 87% 100% Last Result, Median
2 13% 13%  
3 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 99.5% 99.5% Median
2 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 23% 24%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Právo na pravdu (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Právo na pravdu (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Za ľudí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kresťanská únia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 0% 4 4 3–4 3–4
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 3 0% 3 2–3 2–3 2–3
SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 95% 95% Median
5 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 95% 95% Median
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations