Opinion Poll by Invymark for laSexta, 10–14 June 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 38.7% 35.2–42.4% 34.2–43.4% 33.3–44.3% 31.7–46.1%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 31.7% 28.4–35.3% 27.5–36.3% 26.7–37.1% 25.1–38.9%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 11.0% 9.0–13.6% 8.4–14.4% 7.9–15.1% 7.1–16.4%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.3% 4.0–7.4% 3.6–8.0% 3.3–8.5% 2.8–9.6%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.3% 2.3–5.1% 2.1–5.6% 1.8–6.0% 1.4–7.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 26 24–29 23–30 23–30 22–31
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 22 19–24 19–25 18–25 17–27
Vox (PfE) 0 7 6–9 5–10 5–10 4–11
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 3 2–5 2–5 2–5 1–6
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–4 1–4

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 1.3% 99.6%  
23 4% 98%  
24 9% 94%  
25 16% 86%  
26 21% 70% Median
27 20% 50%  
28 15% 30%  
29 9% 15%  
30 4% 6%  
31 1.4% 2% Majority
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.8%  
18 3% 99.0%  
19 8% 96%  
20 15% 88%  
21 20% 74%  
22 21% 53% Median
23 16% 32%  
24 10% 16%  
25 4% 6%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.6% 100%  
5 6% 99.4%  
6 20% 94%  
7 31% 74% Median
8 25% 43%  
9 13% 18%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.9% 1.1%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.7% 100%  
2 15% 99.3%  
3 40% 84% Median
4 31% 44%  
5 10% 13%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 24% 99.5%  
2 50% 75% Median
3 21% 25%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 26 2% 24–29 23–30 23–30 22–31
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 22 0% 19–24 19–25 18–25 17–27
Vox (PfE) 0 7 0% 6–9 5–10 5–10 4–11

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 1.3% 99.6%  
23 4% 98%  
24 9% 94%  
25 16% 86%  
26 21% 70% Median
27 20% 50%  
28 15% 30%  
29 9% 15%  
30 4% 6%  
31 1.4% 2% Majority
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.8%  
18 3% 99.0%  
19 8% 96%  
20 15% 88%  
21 20% 74%  
22 21% 53% Median
23 16% 32%  
24 10% 16%  
25 4% 6%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.6% 100%  
5 6% 99.4%  
6 20% 94%  
7 31% 74% Median
8 25% 43%  
9 13% 18%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.9% 1.1%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations