Opinion Poll by Winston for Artículo14, 29 September–1 October 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 31.3% 29.6–33.1% 29.1–33.6% 28.7–34.0% 28.0–34.8%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 24.9% 23.3–26.6% 22.9–27.0% 22.5–27.4% 21.8–28.2%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 19.1% 17.7–20.6% 17.3–21.0% 16.9–21.4% 16.3–22.1%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.9% 3.3–4.7% 3.1–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.7–5.6%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.9% 3.3–4.7% 3.1–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.7–5.6%
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.9% 2.4–3.6% 2.2–3.9% 2.1–4.0% 1.9–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 23 21–24 21–24 21–24 20–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 18 17–19 16–19 16–20 16–20
Vox (PfE) 0 14 13–15 12–15 12–15 12–16
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 12% 98%  
22 35% 86%  
23 35% 51% Median
24 14% 16%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.4% 100%  
16 6% 99.6%  
17 29% 93%  
18 41% 64% Median
19 20% 23%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.5% 100%  
12 9% 99.5%  
13 38% 90%  
14 39% 52% Median
15 11% 13%  
16 1.1% 1.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 34% 99.8%  
3 61% 66% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.7% 100%  
2 57% 99.3% Median
3 42% 43%  
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 15% 100%  
2 77% 85% Median
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 23 0% 21–24 21–24 21–24 20–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 18 0% 17–19 16–19 16–20 16–20
Vox (PfE) 0 14 0% 13–15 12–15 12–15 12–16

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 12% 98%  
22 35% 86%  
23 35% 51% Median
24 14% 16%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.4% 100%  
16 6% 99.6%  
17 29% 93%  
18 41% 64% Median
19 20% 23%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.5% 100%  
12 9% 99.5%  
13 38% 90%  
14 39% 52% Median
15 11% 13%  
16 1.1% 1.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations