Opinion Poll by Ateneo del Dato for eldiario.es, 20–22 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 31.1% | 29.8–32.4% | 29.4–32.8% | 29.1–33.2% | 28.5–33.8% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 27.6% | 26.3–28.9% | 26.0–29.3% | 25.7–29.6% | 25.1–30.2% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 19.8% | 18.7–21.0% | 18.4–21.3% | 18.1–21.6% | 17.6–22.2% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.4–4.5% | 3.2–4.7% | 3.1–4.8% | 2.9–5.2% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.5–3.4% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.2–3.7% | 2.1–4.0% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.2–3.4% | 2.1–3.5% | 1.9–3.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 21–23 | 21–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 12–15 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 26% | 97% | |
| 22 | 50% | 71% | Median |
| 23 | 19% | 21% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 10% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 45% | 89% | Median |
| 20 | 38% | 44% | |
| 21 | 6% | 6% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 31% | 98% | |
| 14 | 53% | 67% | Median |
| 15 | 13% | 14% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 42% | 100% | |
| 3 | 57% | 58% | Median |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 15% | 100% | |
| 2 | 83% | 85% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 56% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 44% | 44% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 21–23 | 21–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 18–20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 12–15 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 26% | 97% | |
| 22 | 50% | 71% | Median |
| 23 | 19% | 21% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 10% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 45% | 89% | Median |
| 20 | 38% | 44% | |
| 21 | 6% | 6% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 31% | 98% | |
| 14 | 53% | 67% | Median |
| 15 | 13% | 14% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ateneo del Dato
- Commissioner(s): eldiario.es
- Fieldwork period: 20–22 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.37%