Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet, 2–11 June 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 33.0% 31.8–34.2% 31.5–34.6% 31.2–34.9% 30.7–35.4%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 21.3% 20.3–22.3% 20.0–22.6% 19.7–22.9% 19.3–23.4%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 18.3% 17.4–19.3% 17.1–19.6% 16.9–19.8% 16.4–20.3%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 9.1% 8.4–9.9% 8.2–10.1% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.8% 5.2–6.4% 5.1–6.6% 5.0–6.8% 4.7–7.1%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 4.3% 3.8–4.9% 3.7–5.0% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.4%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 3.4% 3.0–3.9% 2.9–4.1% 2.8–4.2% 2.6–4.4%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.6% 2.2–3.0% 2.1–3.2% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 5 5 5 4–6
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 2–3
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 18% 100%  
8 81% 82% Median
9 1.4% 1.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.1% 100%  
5 97% 98.9% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 81% 100% Median
5 19% 19%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 99.0% 100% Median
3 1.0% 1.0%  
4 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 89% 100% Median
2 11% 11%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100% Last Result
1 77% 77% Median
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 5 5 5 4–6
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2–3
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.1% 100%  
5 97% 98.9% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 74% 100% Median
5 26% 26%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 99.0% 100% Median
3 1.0% 1.0%  
4 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 89% 100% Median
2 11% 11%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100% Last Result
1 77% 77% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations