Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 18.1% | 17.0–19.5% | 16.6–19.9% | 16.3–20.2% | 15.8–20.9% |
| 2–27 October 2025 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
17.4% | 16.4–18.5% | 16.1–18.8% | 15.8–19.1% | 15.3–19.6% |
| 18–27 October 2025 | Demoskop Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet |
18.4% | 17.3–19.6% | 17.0–19.9% | 16.8–20.2% | 16.2–20.8% |
| 6–19 October 2025 | Novus TV4 |
18.0% | 17.0–19.0% | 16.7–19.3% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.0–20.1% |
| 7–19 October 2025 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
19.0% | 17.8–20.2% | 17.5–20.6% | 17.3–20.9% | 16.7–21.5% |
| 22 September–5 October 2025 | Verian SVT |
17.9% | 17.1–18.8% | 16.8–19.1% | 16.6–19.3% | 16.2–19.7% |
| 11–22 September 2025 | Demoskop Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet |
18.7% | 17.7–19.9% | 17.4–20.2% | 17.1–20.5% | 16.6–21.0% |
| 9–21 September 2025 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
18.0% | 16.6–19.7% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.8–20.6% | 15.1–21.4% |
| 8–19 September 2025 | Novus Göteborgs-Posten |
17.0% | 16.0–18.0% | 15.7–18.4% | 15.5–18.6% | 15.0–19.1% |
| 18 August–8 September 2025 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
18.0% | 16.9–19.1% | 16.6–19.4% | 16.4–19.7% | 15.9–20.2% |
| 25 August–7 September 2025 | Verian SVT |
18.1% | 17.3–19.0% | 17.0–19.3% | 16.8–19.5% | 16.4–19.9% |
| 14–25 August 2025 | Demoskop Aftonbladet |
17.9% | 16.9–19.0% | 16.6–19.4% | 16.3–19.6% | 15.8–20.2% |
| 11–24 August 2025 | Novus Göteborgs-Posten |
17.6% | 16.6–18.7% | 16.3–19.0% | 16.0–19.2% | 15.6–19.8% |
| 12–24 August 2025 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
17.0% | 15.8–18.2% | 15.5–18.6% | 15.2–18.9% | 14.7–19.5% |
| 4–17 August 2025 | Verian SVT |
18.3% | 17.4–19.2% | 17.2–19.4% | 17.0–19.7% | 16.6–20.1% |
| 4–24 June 2025 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
18.2% | 17.1–19.4% | 16.8–19.7% | 16.5–20.0% | 16.0–20.6% |
| 3–15 June 2025 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
19.0% | 17.8–20.3% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.2–21.0% | 16.6–21.7% |
| 1–15 June 2025 | Demoskop Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet |
18.2% | 17.2–19.3% | 16.9–19.6% | 16.6–19.9% | 16.1–20.4% |
| 1–13 June 2025 | Novus Göteborgs-Posten |
18.3% | 17.2–19.5% | 16.9–19.8% | 16.6–20.1% | 16.1–20.7% |
| 26 May–8 June 2025 | Verian SVT |
18.6% | 17.7–19.5% | 17.5–19.8% | 17.3–20.0% | 16.9–20.4% |
| 29 April–28 May 2025 | SCB | 18.3% | 17.8–18.8% | 17.6–19.0% | 17.5–19.1% | 17.3–19.4% |
| 12–26 May 2025 | Demoskop Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet |
17.9% | 16.9–18.9% | 16.7–19.2% | 16.5–19.4% | 16.0–19.9% |
| 2–25 May 2025 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
17.4% | 16.5–18.3% | 16.2–18.6% | 16.0–18.8% | 15.6–19.3% |
| 5–18 May 2025 | Novus TV4 |
18.5% | 17.4–19.7% | 17.1–20.0% | 16.9–20.3% | 16.4–20.8% |
| 21 April–4 May 2025 | Verian SVT |
18.1% | 17.2–19.0% | 17.0–19.2% | 16.8–19.5% | 16.4–19.9% |
| 11–28 April 2025 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
21.1% | 20.1–22.1% | 19.9–22.4% | 19.6–22.6% | 19.2–23.1% |
| 10–22 April 2025 | Demoskop Svenska Dagbladet |
20.3% | 19.3–21.4% | 19.0–21.6% | 18.8–21.9% | 18.3–22.4% |
| 7–21 April 2025 | Novus TV4 |
19.9% | 18.8–21.1% | 18.5–21.4% | 18.2–21.7% | 17.7–22.2% |
| 8–21 April 2025 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
19.0% | 17.8–20.3% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.2–21.0% | 16.6–21.6% |
| 24 March–6 April 2025 | Verian SVT |
20.3% | 19.4–21.2% | 19.2–21.5% | 18.9–21.7% | 18.5–22.2% |
| 13–24 March 2025 | Demoskop Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet |
18.8% | 17.8–19.9% | 17.5–20.1% | 17.3–20.4% | 16.8–20.9% |
| 7–21 March 2025 | Novus | 20.3% | 19.3–21.4% | 19.0–21.7% | 18.7–22.0% | 18.2–22.5% |
| 4–16 March 2025 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
20.0% | 18.8–21.3% | 18.4–21.6% | 18.2–22.0% | 17.6–22.6% |
| 24 February–9 March 2025 | Verian SVT |
19.2% | 18.3–20.1% | 18.1–20.4% | 17.9–20.6% | 17.5–21.0% |
| 3–25 February 2025 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
18.9% | 18.0–19.8% | 17.8–20.1% | 17.5–20.3% | 17.1–20.8% |
| 9–24 February 2025 | Demoskop Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet |
19.7% | 18.7–20.7% | 18.4–21.0% | 18.2–21.3% | 17.7–21.8% |
| 10–21 February 2025 | Novus Göteborgs-Posten and TV4 |
19.4% | 18.3–20.6% | 18.0–20.9% | 17.8–21.2% | 17.3–21.7% |
| 27 January–9 February 2025 | Verian SVT |
19.7% | 18.8–20.6% | 18.6–20.9% | 18.4–21.1% | 17.9–21.6% |
| 13 January–2 February 2025 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
18.6% | 17.7–19.6% | 17.5–19.8% | 17.2–20.1% | 16.8–20.5% |
| 10–27 January 2025 | Demoskop Svenska Dagbladet |
20.0% | 19.0–21.0% | 18.7–21.3% | 18.5–21.6% | 18.0–22.1% |
| 14–26 January 2025 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
19.0% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.2% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.0–22.4% |
| 13–24 January 2025 | Novus Göteborgs-Posten |
20.1% | 19.1–21.2% | 18.8–21.5% | 18.5–21.8% | 18.0–22.3% |
| 30 December 2024–12 January 2025 | Verian SVT |
19.3% | 18.4–20.2% | 18.2–20.5% | 18.0–20.7% | 17.6–21.2% |
| 5 December 2024–6 January 2025 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
18.6% | 17.5–19.8% | 17.2–20.1% | 16.9–20.4% | 16.4–20.9% |
| 2–16 December 2024 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
19.0% | 17.8–20.3% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.2–21.0% | 16.6–21.6% |
| 23 November–9 December 2024 | Demoskop Svenska Dagbladet |
19.2% | 18.2–20.3% | 17.9–20.5% | 17.7–20.8% | 17.2–21.3% |
| 25 November–8 December 2024 | Verian SVT |
19.0% | 18.1–19.9% | 17.9–20.2% | 17.7–20.4% | 17.3–20.8% |
| 5–18 November 2024 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
19.0% | 17.8–20.3% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.0% | 16.6–21.6% |
| 26 October–11 November 2024 | Demoskop Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet |
19.5% | 19.2–21.3% | 18.9–21.6% | 18.7–21.8% | 18.2–22.4% |
| 28 October–10 November 2024 | Verian SVT |
19.1% | 18.2–20.1% | 17.9–20.3% | 17.7–20.6% | 17.3–21.0% |
| 7–29 October 2024 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
18.3% | 17.7–18.9% | 17.5–19.1% | 17.4–19.2% | 17.1–19.5% |
| 9–20 October 2024 | Novus Göteborgs-Posten |
19.3% | 18.2–20.4% | 17.9–20.8% | 17.7–21.0% | 17.2–21.6% |
| 7–20 October 2024 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
18.0% | 16.6–19.7% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.8–20.6% | 15.1–21.4% |
| 22 September–8 October 2024 | Demoskop Svenska Dagbladet |
20.2% | 19.2–21.2% | 18.9–21.5% | 18.7–21.8% | 18.2–22.3% |
| 23 September–6 October 2024 | Verian SVT |
19.7% | 18.8–20.7% | 18.5–20.9% | 18.3–21.2% | 17.9–21.6% |
| 26 August–22 September 2024 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
19.7% | 18.7–20.7% | 18.4–21.0% | 18.2–21.3% | 17.7–21.8% |
| 26 August–8 September 2024 | Verian SVT |
20.3% | 19.4–21.2% | 19.1–21.5% | 18.9–21.7% | 18.5–22.2% |
| 29 July–11 August 2024 | Verian SVT |
20.0% | 19.1–20.9% | 18.8–21.2% | 18.6–21.4% | 18.2–21.9% |
| 5–26 June 2024 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
19.2% | 18.1–20.3% | 17.8–20.7% | 17.6–21.0% | 17.1–21.5% |
| 3–16 June 2024 | Verian SVT |
19.1% | 18.2–20.0% | 17.9–20.2% | 17.7–20.5% | 17.3–20.9% |
| 2–11 June 2024 | Demoskop Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet |
18.3% | 17.4–19.3% | 17.1–19.6% | 16.9–19.8% | 16.4–20.3% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 22% | 96% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 40% | 74% | Median |
| 18.5–19.5% | 25% | 33% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 7% | 9% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 2–27 October 2025 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
4 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 18–27 October 2025 | Demoskop Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 6–19 October 2025 | Novus TV4 |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 |
| 7–19 October 2025 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 22 September–5 October 2025 | Verian SVT |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 |
| 11–22 September 2025 | Demoskop Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 9–21 September 2025 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 8–19 September 2025 | Novus Göteborgs-Posten |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 |
| 18 August–8 September 2025 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 |
| 25 August–7 September 2025 | Verian SVT |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 |
| 14–25 August 2025 | Demoskop Aftonbladet |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 11–24 August 2025 | Novus Göteborgs-Posten |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 |
| 12–24 August 2025 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 4–17 August 2025 | Verian SVT |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 4–24 June 2025 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 3–15 June 2025 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 1–15 June 2025 | Demoskop Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 |
| 1–13 June 2025 | Novus Göteborgs-Posten |
4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 26 May–8 June 2025 | Verian SVT |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 29 April–28 May 2025 | SCB | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 |
| 12–26 May 2025 | Demoskop Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 |
| 2–25 May 2025 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 5–18 May 2025 | Novus TV4 |
4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 21 April–4 May 2025 | Verian SVT |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 |
| 11–28 April 2025 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–6 |
| 10–22 April 2025 | Demoskop Svenska Dagbladet |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 7–21 April 2025 | Novus TV4 |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 8–21 April 2025 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 24 March–6 April 2025 | Verian SVT |
5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 13–24 March 2025 | Demoskop Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet |
4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 7–21 March 2025 | Novus | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 4–16 March 2025 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 24 February–9 March 2025 | Verian SVT |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 3–25 February 2025 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 9–24 February 2025 | Demoskop Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 10–21 February 2025 | Novus Göteborgs-Posten and TV4 |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 27 January–9 February 2025 | Verian SVT |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 13 January–2 February 2025 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 10–27 January 2025 | Demoskop Svenska Dagbladet |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 14–26 January 2025 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 13–24 January 2025 | Novus Göteborgs-Posten |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 30 December 2024–12 January 2025 | Verian SVT |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 5 December 2024–6 January 2025 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 2–16 December 2024 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 23 November–9 December 2024 | Demoskop Svenska Dagbladet |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 25 November–8 December 2024 | Verian SVT |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 5–18 November 2024 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 26 October–11 November 2024 | Demoskop Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 28 October–10 November 2024 | Verian SVT |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 7–29 October 2024 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 9–20 October 2024 | Novus Göteborgs-Posten |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 7–20 October 2024 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
4 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 22 September–8 October 2024 | Demoskop Svenska Dagbladet |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 23 September–6 October 2024 | Verian SVT |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 26 August–22 September 2024 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 26 August–8 September 2024 | Verian SVT |
5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 29 July–11 August 2024 | Verian SVT |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 5–26 June 2024 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 3–16 June 2024 | Verian SVT |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 2–11 June 2024 | Demoskop Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 94% | 98.8% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |