Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 30 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | S | MP | M | L | SD | C | V | KD | Fi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 May 2019 | General Election | 24.2% 5 |
15.4% 4 |
13.6% 3 |
9.9% 2 |
9.7% 2 |
6.5% 1 |
6.3% 1 |
5.9% 1 |
5.5% 1 |
| N/A | Poll Average | 28–33% 6–8 |
8–11% 2–3 |
16–20% 4–5 |
3–4% 0–1 |
16–21% 3–5 |
3–5% 0–1 |
8–10% 2 |
2–5% 0–1 |
N/A N/A |
| 24 April–7 May 2024 | Demoskop Svenska Dagbladet |
27–30% 6–7 |
8–10% 2 |
16–19% 4 |
3–4% 0 |
19–21% 4–5 |
4–5% 0–1 |
8–10% 2 |
4–5% 0–1 |
N/A N/A |
| 25–30 April 2024 | Verian SVT |
28–32% 6–8 |
8–11% 2 |
17–20% 3–5 |
3–5% 0–1 |
16–19% 3–4 |
4–6% 0–1 |
8–10% 2 |
3–5% 0–1 |
N/A N/A |
| 1–28 April 2024 | Novus | 29–33% 7–8 |
9–12% 2–3 |
16–19% 4–5 |
3–5% 0–1 |
17–20% 4–5 |
3–4% 0–1 |
7–10% 2 |
3–4% 0–1 |
N/A N/A |
| 28 March–22 April 2024 | Indikator Sveriges Radio |
31–33% 7–8 |
9–10% 2 |
18–20% 4–5 |
3–4% 0 |
18–20% 4–5 |
4–5% 1 |
7–9% 2 |
2–3% 0 |
N/A N/A |
| 26 May 2019 | General Election | 24.2% 5 |
15.4% 4 |
13.6% 3 |
9.9% 2 |
9.7% 2 |
6.5% 1 |
6.3% 1 |
5.9% 1 |
5.5% 1 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the European Parliament (95% confidence interval)
- S: Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)
- MP: Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)
- M: Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)
- L: Liberalerna (RE)
- SD: Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)
- C: Centerpartiet (RE)
- V: Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)
- KD: Kristdemokraterna (EPP)
- Fi: Feministiskt initiativ (S&D)
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) | 24.2% | 30.4% | 28.2–32.6% | 27.8–32.9% | 27.5–33.1% | 27.0–33.6% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) | 15.4% | 9.7% | 8.9–10.6% | 8.6–10.9% | 8.5–11.2% | 8.1–11.7% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) | 13.6% | 18.1% | 16.8–19.3% | 16.6–19.6% | 16.3–19.8% | 15.9–20.3% |
| Liberalerna (RE) | 9.9% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.8–4.5% | 2.6–4.8% |
| Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) | 9.7% | 18.7% | 16.9–20.2% | 16.5–20.5% | 16.1–20.8% | 15.4–21.3% |
| Centerpartiet (RE) | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.5–5.0% | 3.3–5.1% | 3.1–5.3% | 2.9–5.6% |
| Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.8–9.3% | 7.7–9.6% | 7.5–9.8% | 7.2–10.2% |
| Kristdemokraterna (EPP) | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.3–4.7% | 2.2–4.9% | 2.1–5.0% | 2.0–5.3% |
| Feministiskt initiativ (S&D) | 5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.5–24.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 14% | 97% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 19% | 83% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 16% | 64% | Median |
| 30.5–31.5% | 16% | 48% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 22% | 32% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 10% | 10% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 4% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 40% | 96% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 45% | 56% | Median |
| 10.5–11.5% | 10% | 11% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 27% | 95% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 34% | 69% | Median |
| 18.5–19.5% | 29% | 35% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 5% | 5% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 58% | 99.8% | Median |
| 3.5–4.5% | 40% | 42% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 12% | 94% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 26% | 82% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 32% | 55% | Median |
| 19.5–20.5% | 18% | 23% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 11% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 48% | 89% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 40% | 41% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6.5–7.5% | 3% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 51% | 97% | Median |
| 8.5–9.5% | 41% | 46% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 5% | 5% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 22% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 17% | 78% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 45% | 61% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 15% | 15% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) | 5 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) | 4 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) | 3 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Liberalerna (RE) | 2 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) | 2 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Centerpartiet (RE) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Kristdemokraterna (EPP) | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Feministiskt initiativ (S&D) | 1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 33% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 43% | 66% | Median |
| 8 | 23% | 23% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 89% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 11% | 11% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1.0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 88% | 99.0% | Median |
| 5 | 11% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 81% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 19% | 19% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 75% | 96% | Median |
| 5 | 22% | 22% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26% | 100% | |
| 1 | 74% | 74% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 99.8% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 59% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 41% | 41% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Feministiskt initiativ (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ (S&D) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) – Feministiskt initiativ (S&D) | 6 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) | 4 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) | 2 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) | 4 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) | 1 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Liberalerna (RE) – Centerpartiet (RE) | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) – Feministiskt initiativ (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 33% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 7 | 43% | 66% | Median |
| 8 | 23% | 23% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 50% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 50% | 50% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 75% | 96% | Median |
| 5 | 22% | 22% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 89% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 11% | 11% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 99.8% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna (RE) – Centerpartiet (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | |
| 1 | 78% | 86% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 4
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 2,097,152
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.99%