Opinion Poll by Indikator for Sveriges Radio, 5–26 June 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 31.0% 29.7–32.3% 29.3–32.7% 29.0–33.0% 28.4–33.6%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 19.2% 18.1–20.3% 17.8–20.7% 17.6–21.0% 17.1–21.5%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 18.6% 17.5–19.7% 17.2–20.0% 17.0–20.3% 16.5–20.9%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 9.9% 9.1–10.8% 8.9–11.1% 8.7–11.3% 8.3–11.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.2% 6.5–8.0% 6.3–8.2% 6.2–8.4% 5.9–8.8%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 5.3% 4.7–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.4–6.3% 4.1–6.7%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 3.7% 3.2–4.3% 3.1–4.5% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.9%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 3.7% 3.2–4.3% 3.1–4.5% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 7 7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 6% 100%  
7 86% 94% Median
8 9% 9%  
9 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 71% 99.9% Median
5 29% 29%  
6 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 89% 99.9% Median
5 11% 11%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 93% 100% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 14% 100%  
2 86% 86% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 98.7% 99.8% Median
2 1.2% 1.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Last Result, Median
1 28% 28%  
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 36% 36%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 45% 100% Median
5 52% 55%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 89% 99.9% Median
5 11% 11%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 93% 100% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 63% 99.9% Median
2 37% 37%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 14% 100%  
2 86% 86% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations