Opinion Poll by Indikator for Sveriges Radio, 26 August–22 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 33.5% 32.3–34.7% 32.0–35.1% 31.7–35.4% 31.1–35.9%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 19.7% 18.7–20.7% 18.4–21.0% 18.2–21.3% 17.7–21.8%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 19.2% 18.2–20.2% 17.9–20.5% 17.7–20.8% 17.2–21.3%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.8% 7.1–8.5% 7.0–8.7% 6.8–8.9% 6.5–9.3%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.8% 6.2–7.5% 6.0–7.7% 5.9–7.8% 5.6–8.2%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.5–5.6% 4.3–5.8% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 3.5% 3.1–4.0% 2.9–4.2% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.6%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 3.4% 3.0–3.9% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–8
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 40% 100%  
8 60% 60% Median
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 61% 100% Median
5 39% 39%  
6 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 80% 100% Median
5 20% 20%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.4% 100%  
2 98.6% 98.6% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 33% 100%  
2 67% 67% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 99.4% 99.5% Median
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 53% 100% Median
5 45% 47%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 80% 100% Median
5 20% 20%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.4% 100%  
2 98.6% 98.6% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 94% 99.5% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 33% 100%  
2 67% 67% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations