Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 7–20 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) |
0.0% |
33.0% |
31.1–34.9% |
30.6–35.5% |
30.1–36.0% |
29.3–36.9% |
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) |
0.0% |
19.0% |
17.5–20.7% |
17.1–21.2% |
16.7–21.6% |
16.0–22.4% |
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) |
0.0% |
18.0% |
16.6–19.7% |
16.1–20.1% |
15.8–20.6% |
15.1–21.4% |
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
8.0% |
7.0–9.2% |
6.7–9.5% |
6.4–9.8% |
6.0–10.4% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.1–7.1% |
4.9–7.4% |
4.7–7.6% |
4.3–8.2% |
Centerpartiet (RE) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.2–6.0% |
4.0–6.3% |
3.8–6.5% |
3.5–7.0% |
Liberalerna (RE) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.1–5.2% |
2.9–5.4% |
2.6–5.9% |
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.1–5.2% |
2.9–5.4% |
2.6–5.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
3% |
100% |
|
7 |
55% |
97% |
Median |
8 |
41% |
42% |
|
9 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
4 |
77% |
99.4% |
Median |
5 |
22% |
22% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
3% |
100% |
|
4 |
88% |
97% |
Median |
5 |
9% |
9% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
5% |
100% |
|
2 |
95% |
95% |
Median |
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
80% |
99.9% |
Median |
2 |
20% |
20% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Centerpartiet (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
4% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
94% |
96% |
Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liberalerna (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
36% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
64% |
64% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristdemokraterna (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
49% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
51% |
51% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) |
0 |
5 |
0% |
4–5 |
4–5 |
4–6 |
4–6 |
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) |
0 |
4 |
0% |
4–5 |
4–5 |
4–5 |
3–5 |
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
0–3 |
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
4 |
45% |
99.5% |
|
5 |
51% |
54% |
Median |
6 |
3% |
3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
4 |
77% |
99.4% |
Median |
5 |
22% |
22% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
37% |
98.6% |
|
2 |
61% |
62% |
Median |
3 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
80% |
99.9% |
Median |
2 |
20% |
20% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
5% |
100% |
|
2 |
95% |
95% |
Median |
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Dagens Nyheter
- Fieldwork period: 7–20 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1003
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.71%