Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet, 26 October–11 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 32.0% 30.8–33.2% 30.5–33.6% 30.2–33.9% 29.7–34.5%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 20.2% 19.2–21.3% 18.9–21.6% 18.7–21.8% 18.2–22.4%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 19.7% 18.7–20.7% 18.4–21.0% 18.2–21.3% 17.7–21.8%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.1% 6.7–9.5%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.5% 6.9–8.2% 6.7–8.4% 6.5–8.6% 6.2–9.0%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 4.7% 4.2–5.3% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.5% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.1%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.4–3.3% 2.3–3.4% 2.2–3.5% 2.0–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 7 7 7–8 7–8 6–8
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 92% 98% Median
8 6% 6%  
9 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 60% 100% Median
5 40% 40%  
6 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 85% 100% Median
5 15% 15%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.9% 100%  
2 99.1% 99.1% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 8% 100%  
2 92% 92% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 97% 97% Median
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100% Last Result
1 54% 54% Median
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 0–1 0–1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 14% 100%  
5 78% 86% Median
6 8% 8%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 85% 100% Median
5 15% 15%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.9% 100%  
2 99.1% 99.1% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 8% 100%  
2 92% 92% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 97% 97% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations