Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 5–18 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 34.0% 32.5–35.5% 32.1–36.0% 31.7–36.3% 31.0–37.1%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 21.0% 19.7–22.3% 19.4–22.7% 19.1–23.0% 18.5–23.7%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 19.0% 17.8–20.3% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.0% 16.6–21.6%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.4% 6.4–9.9%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.6%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.6%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–8
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.6% 100%  
7 55% 99.4% Median
8 44% 44%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 41% 100%  
5 59% 59% Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 92% 99.7% Median
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 97% 98% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 52% 52% Median
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Last Result, Median
1 46% 46%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 49% 99.9% Median
5 48% 51%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 41% 100%  
5 59% 59% Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100% Last Result
1 47% 98.6%  
2 51% 51% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations