Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 2–16 December 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 31.0% 29.6–32.5% 29.2–32.9% 28.8–33.3% 28.2–34.0%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 21.0% 19.8–22.3% 19.4–22.7% 19.1–23.0% 18.5–23.7%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 19.0% 17.8–20.3% 17.5–20.7% 17.2–21.0% 16.6–21.6%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.1% 5.0–7.3% 4.6–7.7%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.1% 5.0–7.3% 4.6–7.7%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.0–4.2%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.0–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–8
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 2–3
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 80% 98% Median
8 18% 18%  
9 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 7% 100%  
5 92% 93% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 65% 100% Median
5 35% 35%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 98.8% 100% Median
3 1.2% 1.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 75% 100% Median
2 25% 25%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 77% 100% Median
2 23% 23%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.4% 1.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2–3
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 63% 100% Median
5 37% 37%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 7% 100%  
5 92% 93% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 98.8% 100% Median
3 1.2% 1.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 76% 100% Median
2 24% 24%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 75% 100% Median
2 25% 25%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations