Opinion Poll by Novus for Göteborgs Posten, 13–24 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 33.8% 32.6–35.1% 32.2–35.4% 31.9–35.7% 31.3–36.4%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 20.3% 19.3–21.4% 19.0–21.7% 18.7–22.0% 18.2–22.5%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 20.1% 19.1–21.2% 18.8–21.5% 18.5–21.8% 18.0–22.3%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.7% 7.1–8.5% 6.9–8.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.3%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.9% 5.3–6.6% 5.2–6.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.3%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 5.2% 4.7–5.9% 4.5–6.0% 4.4–6.2% 4.1–6.5%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.4–3.3% 2.3–3.4% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.8%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 2.6% 2.2–3.1% 2.1–3.2% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–8
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 30% 100%  
8 70% 70% Median
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 34% 100%  
5 66% 66% Median
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 42% 100%  
5 58% 58% Median
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 93% 100% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 99.5% 99.8% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 42% 100%  
5 58% 58% Median
6 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 34% 100%  
5 66% 66% Median
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 93% 100% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 99.4% 99.8% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations