Opinion Poll by Verian for SVT, 27 January–9 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 33.7% 32.6–34.8% 32.3–35.1% 32.1–35.3% 31.6–35.9%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 20.9% 20.0–21.8% 19.7–22.1% 19.5–22.3% 19.1–22.8%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 19.7% 18.8–20.6% 18.6–20.9% 18.4–21.1% 17.9–21.6%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.4% 6.8–8.0% 6.7–8.2% 6.5–8.4% 6.3–8.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.2% 5.7–6.8% 5.5–7.0% 5.4–7.1% 5.2–7.4%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 4.1% 3.7–4.6% 3.6–4.7% 3.5–4.9% 3.3–5.1%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 3.8% 3.4–4.3% 3.3–4.4% 3.2–4.5% 3.0–4.8%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.2–2.9% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.1% 1.9–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–8
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 34% 100%  
8 66% 66% Median
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 13% 100%  
5 87% 87% Median
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 58% 100% Median
5 42% 42%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 95% 95% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 84% 100% Median
2 16% 16%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100% Last Result
1 63% 63% Median
2 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Last Result, Median
1 30% 30%  
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 13% 100%  
5 69% 87% Median
6 18% 18%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 13% 100%  
5 87% 87% Median
6 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 84% 100% Median
2 16% 16%  
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 95% 95% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Last Result, Median
1 30% 30%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations