Opinion Poll by Novus for Göteborgs-Posten and TV4, 10–21 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 35.4% 34.0–36.7% 33.7–37.1% 33.4–37.5% 32.7–38.1%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 20.5% 19.4–21.7% 19.1–22.0% 18.8–22.3% 18.3–22.9%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 19.4% 18.3–20.6% 18.0–20.9% 17.8–21.2% 17.3–21.7%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 6.9% 6.2–7.7% 6.1–7.9% 5.9–8.1% 5.6–8.5%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.8% 5.2–6.5% 5.0–6.7% 4.9–6.9% 4.6–7.3%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 4.2% 3.7–4.8% 3.5–5.0% 3.4–5.2% 3.2–5.5%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.1%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 8–9 8–9 7–9 7–9
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 3% 100%  
8 81% 97% Median
9 16% 16%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 16% 100%  
5 83% 84% Median
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 59% 100% Median
5 41% 41%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 19% 100%  
2 81% 81% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 91% 100% Median
2 9% 9%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100% Last Result
1 68% 68% Median
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 58% 100% Median
5 41% 42%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 16% 100%  
5 83% 84% Median
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 91% 100% Median
2 9% 9%  
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 19% 100%  
2 81% 81% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100% Last Result
1 68% 69% Median
2 1.4% 1.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations