Opinion Poll by Verian for SVT, 24 February–9 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 34.2% 33.1–35.3% 32.8–35.6% 32.5–35.8% 32.0–36.4%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 19.2% 18.3–20.1% 18.1–20.4% 17.9–20.6% 17.5–21.0%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 19.2% 18.3–20.1% 18.1–20.4% 17.9–20.6% 17.5–21.0%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.6% 7.0–8.2% 6.9–8.4% 6.7–8.6% 6.5–8.9%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.2% 5.7–6.8% 5.5–7.0% 5.4–7.1% 5.2–7.4%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 4.4% 4.0–4.9% 3.8–5.0% 3.7–5.2% 3.5–5.4%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 4.2% 3.8–4.7% 3.6–4.8% 3.5–4.9% 3.4–5.2%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.4–3.2% 2.3–3.3% 2.3–3.4% 2.1–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 15% 100%  
8 85% 85% Median
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 78% 100% Median
5 22% 22%  
6 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 79% 100% Median
5 21% 21%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 85% 100% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100% Last Result
1 87% 87% Median
2 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100% Last Result
1 70% 70% Median
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 7% 100%  
5 77% 93% Median
6 16% 16%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 79% 100% Median
5 21% 21%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 85% 100% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100% Last Result
1 70% 70% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations