Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 4–16 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 35.0% 33.5–36.5% 33.1–36.9% 32.8–37.3% 32.1–38.0%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 20.0% 18.8–21.3% 18.4–21.6% 18.2–22.0% 17.6–22.6%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 20.0% 18.8–21.3% 18.4–21.6% 18.2–22.0% 17.6–22.6%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.8–9.4% 6.4–9.8%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.1% 3.8–6.5%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.4%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 8–9 8–9 7–9 7–9
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 4% 100%  
8 83% 96% Median
9 12% 12%  
10 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 32% 100%  
5 68% 68% Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 24% 100%  
5 76% 76% Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.6% 100%  
2 99.3% 99.4% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 97% 98% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Last Result, Median
1 46% 46%  
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 31% 100%  
5 68% 69% Median
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 24% 100%  
5 76% 76% Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.6% 100%  
2 99.3% 99.4% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 97% 98% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 46% 47%  
2 1.1% 1.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations