Opinion Poll by Novus for TV4, 7–21 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 36.7% 35.4–38.1% 35.0–38.5% 34.7–38.8% 34.0–39.5%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 19.9% 18.8–21.1% 18.5–21.4% 18.2–21.7% 17.7–22.2%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 19.2% 18.2–20.4% 17.8–20.7% 17.6–21.0% 17.1–21.5%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 8.1% 7.4–8.9% 7.2–9.2% 7.0–9.4% 6.7–9.8%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.6% 4.1–5.3% 3.9–5.4% 3.8–5.6% 3.5–5.9%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 4.3% 3.8–5.0% 3.6–5.1% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.6%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 3.2% 2.8–3.8% 2.6–3.9% 2.5–4.1% 2.3–4.3%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.1% 1.9–3.3% 1.7–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 8–9 8–9 8–9 8–9
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.3% 100%  
8 61% 99.7% Median
9 38% 38%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 42% 100%  
5 58% 58% Median
6 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 68% 100% Median
5 32% 32%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 99.6% 99.6% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 93% 93% Median
2 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100% Last Result
1 78% 78% Median
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 40% 100%  
5 59% 60% Median
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 68% 100% Median
5 32% 32%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 99.6% 99.6% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100% Last Result
1 78% 78% Median
2 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 93% 93% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations