Opinion Poll by Verian for SVT, 21 April–4 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 35.6% 34.5–36.7% 34.2–37.0% 34.0–37.3% 33.4–37.8%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 18.9% 18.0–19.8% 17.8–20.1% 17.6–20.3% 17.2–20.7%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 18.1% 17.2–19.0% 17.0–19.2% 16.8–19.5% 16.4–19.9%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.6% 7.0–8.2% 6.9–8.4% 6.7–8.6% 6.5–8.9%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.7% 5.2–6.2% 5.1–6.4% 4.9–6.6% 4.7–6.8%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 4.8% 4.3–5.3% 4.2–5.5% 4.1–5.6% 3.9–5.9%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 4.4% 3.9–4.9% 3.8–5.0% 3.7–5.2% 3.5–5.4%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.5–3.2% 2.4–3.4% 2.3–3.4% 2.1–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 8 8–9 8–9 7–9
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.8% 100%  
8 94% 99.2% Median
9 5% 5%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 93% 100% Median
5 7% 7%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 99.0% 100% Median
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.0% 100%  
2 99.0% 99.0% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98.7% 100% Median
2 1.3% 1.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100% Last Result
1 99.0% 99.0% Median
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 88% 88% Median
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 11% 100%  
5 89% 89% Median
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 93% 100% Median
5 7% 7%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.0% 100%  
2 99.0% 99.0% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100% Last Result
1 99.0% 99.0% Median
2 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98.7% 100% Median
2 1.3% 1.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations