Opinion Poll by Novus for TV4, 5–18 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 34.5% 33.2–35.9% 32.8–36.3% 32.5–36.6% 31.8–37.3%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 20.4% 19.3–21.6% 18.9–21.9% 18.7–22.2% 18.2–22.8%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 18.5% 17.4–19.7% 17.1–20.0% 16.9–20.3% 16.4–20.8%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.2% 6.5–8.0% 6.3–8.2% 6.1–8.4% 5.8–8.8%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 6.5% 5.8–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 2.9% 2.5–3.4% 2.3–3.6% 2.2–3.7% 2.0–4.0%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.6% 2.2–3.1% 2.1–3.2% 2.0–3.4% 1.8–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 16% 100%  
8 82% 84% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 28% 100%  
5 72% 72% Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 91% 99.9% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 12% 100%  
2 88% 88% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 56% 100% Median
2 44% 44%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100% Last Result
1 98.6% 98.8% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 4 0% 4 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 91% 99.9% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 28% 100%  
5 72% 72% Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 56% 100% Median
2 44% 44%  
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 12% 100%  
2 88% 88% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100% Last Result
1 98.6% 98.8% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations