Opinion Poll by SCB, 29 April–28 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 36.2% 35.6–36.8% 35.4–37.0% 35.2–37.2% 34.9–37.5%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 18.3% 17.8–18.8% 17.6–19.0% 17.5–19.1% 17.3–19.4%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 18.0% 17.5–18.5% 17.3–18.7% 17.2–18.8% 17.0–19.1%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.1% 6.8–7.5% 6.7–7.6% 6.6–7.7% 6.4–7.8%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.5% 6.2–6.8% 6.1–7.0% 6.0–7.0% 5.9–7.2%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 5.5% 5.2–5.8% 5.1–5.9% 5.0–6.0% 4.9–6.2%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 3.4% 3.2–3.7% 3.1–3.7% 3.0–3.8% 2.9–3.9%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.6–3.0% 2.5–3.1% 2.5–3.2% 2.4–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 8–9 8–9 8–9 8–9
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4 4 4 4
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 68% 100% Median
9 32% 32%  
10 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 98% 100% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 99.7% 100% Median
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 99.6% 99.6% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 34% 100%  
2 66% 66% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 4 0% 4 4 4 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4 4 4 4
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 98% 100% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 99.7% 100% Median
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 99.6% 99.6% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 34% 100%  
2 66% 66% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations