Opinion Poll by Verian for SVT, 26 May–8 June 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 34.7% 33.6–35.8% 33.3–36.1% 33.1–36.4% 32.6–36.9%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 19.3% 18.4–20.2% 18.2–20.5% 18.0–20.7% 17.6–21.2%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 18.6% 17.7–19.5% 17.5–19.8% 17.3–20.0% 16.9–20.4%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.6% 7.0–8.2% 6.9–8.4% 6.7–8.6% 6.5–8.9%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 5.9% 5.4–6.5% 5.3–6.6% 5.1–6.8% 4.9–7.1%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.1% 4.6–5.6% 4.5–5.8% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.2%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 3.7% 3.3–4.2% 3.2–4.3% 3.1–4.4% 2.9–4.7%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 2.1–2.8% 2.0–2.9% 1.9–3.0% 1.8–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 8 8–9 8–9 7–9
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 2% 100%  
8 92% 98% Median
9 6% 6%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 47% 100%  
5 53% 53% Median
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 86% 100% Median
5 14% 14%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.6% 100%  
2 99.4% 99.4% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 92% 100% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 99.9% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Last Result, Median
1 21% 21%  
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 65% 100% Median
5 35% 35%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 47% 100%  
5 53% 53% Median
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.6% 100%  
2 99.4% 99.4% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 92% 100% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 99.9% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations