Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 12–24 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 34.0% 32.5–35.5% 32.1–36.0% 31.7–36.3% 31.0–37.1%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 20.0% 18.8–21.3% 18.4–21.7% 18.1–22.0% 17.5–22.7%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 17.0% 15.8–18.2% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–18.9% 14.7–19.5%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.9–8.3% 5.5–8.8%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.6%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.6%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.6%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 48% 99.9%  
8 52% 52% Median
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 60% 100% Median
5 40% 40%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 11% 100%  
4 88% 89% Median
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 34% 100%  
2 66% 66% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.5% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98.5% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100% Last Result
1 98.5% 98.8% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100% Last Result
1 54% 54% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 13% 99.9%  
5 87% 87% Median
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 60% 100% Median
5 40% 40%  
6 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 45% 99.4%  
2 54% 54% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 34% 100%  
2 66% 66% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations