Opinion Poll by Novus for Göteborgs-Posten, 11–24 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 34.1% 32.8–35.4% 32.4–35.8% 32.1–36.1% 31.5–36.7%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.6–22.5% 19.4–22.8% 18.9–23.3%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 17.6% 16.6–18.7% 16.3–19.0% 16.0–19.2% 15.6–19.8%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 8.6% 7.9–9.4% 7.7–9.6% 7.5–9.8% 7.1–10.2%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.5–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.2–6.0% 3.9–6.3%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.9% 4.3–5.5% 4.2–5.7% 4.1–5.9% 3.8–6.2%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 3.9% 3.4–4.5% 3.3–4.6% 3.2–4.8% 2.9–5.1%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4 3–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 30% 100%  
8 70% 70% Median
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 12% 100%  
5 87% 88% Median
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.2% 100%  
4 98% 98.8% Median
5 1.3% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 99.9% 99.9% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 99.1% 99.2% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 57% 100% Last Result, Median
1 43% 43%  
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 57% 100% Median
5 43% 43%  
6 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 12% 100%  
5 87% 88% Median
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 99.9% 99.9% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 98.5% 99.2% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations