Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet, 14–25 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 33.5% 32.2–34.9% 31.8–35.3% 31.5–35.6% 30.9–36.2%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 20.7% 19.6–21.9% 19.3–22.2% 19.0–22.5% 18.5–23.1%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 17.9% 16.9–19.0% 16.6–19.4% 16.3–19.6% 15.8–20.2%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.3% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.5% 5.9–8.9%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 6.3% 5.6–7.0% 5.5–7.2% 5.3–7.4% 5.0–7.8%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 4.6% 4.0–5.2% 3.9–5.4% 3.8–5.6% 3.5–5.9%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 4.3% 3.8–4.9% 3.6–5.1% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.6%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.2% 2.2–3.4% 2.1–3.5% 1.9–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4–5 3–5
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 49% 99.9%  
8 50% 51% Median
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 27% 100%  
5 73% 73% Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.8% 100%  
4 96% 99.2% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 13% 100%  
2 87% 87% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 78% 100% Median
2 22% 22%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 93% 93% Median
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100% Last Result
1 71% 71% Median
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 28% 100%  
5 71% 72% Median
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 27% 100%  
5 73% 73% Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 13% 100%  
2 87% 87% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 78% 100% Median
2 22% 22%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 93% 93% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations