Opinion Poll by Novus for Göteborgs-Posten, 8–19 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 34.6% 33.3–35.9% 32.9–36.3% 32.6–36.6% 32.0–37.3%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 23.9% 22.8–25.1% 22.4–25.4% 22.1–25.7% 21.6–26.3%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 17.0% 16.0–18.0% 15.7–18.4% 15.5–18.6% 15.0–19.1%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 6.6% 6.0–7.3% 5.8–7.5% 5.6–7.7% 5.3–8.1%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 5.2% 4.6–5.9% 4.5–6.0% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.5%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.6% 4.1–5.2% 3.9–5.4% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.9%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 3.1% 2.7–3.6% 2.5–3.8% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.2%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 8 7–9 7–9 7–9
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4 3–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 8% 100%  
8 87% 92% Median
9 5% 5%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 49% 100%  
6 51% 51% Median
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 98% 98% Median
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 43% 100%  
2 57% 57% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 99.2% 99.7% Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 92% 92% Median
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 4 0% 4 4 4–5 3–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 49% 100%  
6 51% 51% Median
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 96% 98% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 43% 100%  
2 57% 57% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.7% Median
2 1.3% 1.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 92% 92% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations