Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 9–21 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 35.0% 33.1–37.0% 32.6–37.5% 32.1–38.0% 31.2–39.0%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 21.0% 19.4–22.8% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.7% 17.9–24.5%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 18.0% 16.6–19.7% 16.1–20.1% 15.8–20.6% 15.1–21.4%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 14% 99.9%  
8 71% 86% Median
9 15% 15%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 17% 100%  
5 79% 83% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 86% 98% Median
5 12% 12%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 31% 100%  
2 69% 69% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 76% 99.9% Median
2 24% 24%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 52% 52% Median
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 52% 52% Median
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 40% 99.7%  
5 57% 60% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 17% 100%  
5 79% 83% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 71% 99.9% Median
2 28% 29%  
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 31% 100%  
2 69% 69% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 52% 52% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations