Opinion Poll by Novus for TV4, 6–19 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 34.9% 33.7–36.2% 33.3–36.5% 33.0–36.8% 32.4–37.4%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 22.6% 21.6–23.7% 21.2–24.1% 21.0–24.3% 20.5–24.9%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 18.0% 17.0–19.0% 16.7–19.3% 16.5–19.6% 16.0–20.1%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 6.9% 6.3–7.6% 6.1–7.8% 5.9–8.0% 5.7–8.3%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 5.4% 4.9–6.1% 4.7–6.2% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.4% 3.9–5.0% 3.7–5.1% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.9–2.7% 1.8–2.8% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–9 7–9
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 5 5–6 5–6 4–6
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4 3–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 22% 100%  
8 73% 78% Median
9 5% 5%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.4% 100%  
5 93% 98.6% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.2% 100%  
4 96% 98.8% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 29% 100%  
2 71% 71% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.4% 100% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 86% 86% Median
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100% Last Result
1 54% 54% Median
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 5 5–6 5–6 4–6
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.4% 100%  
5 93% 98.6% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 45% 100%  
5 55% 55% Median
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 29% 100%  
2 71% 71% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.4% 100% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 86% 86% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations