Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet, 18–27 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 32.6% 31.3–34.0% 30.9–34.4% 30.6–34.7% 29.9–35.4%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 21.6% 20.5–22.8% 20.1–23.2% 19.8–23.5% 19.3–24.1%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 18.4% 17.3–19.6% 17.0–19.9% 16.8–20.2% 16.2–20.8%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.4% 6.7–8.2% 6.5–8.4% 6.3–8.6% 6.0–9.0%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 5.1% 4.5–5.8% 4.3–6.0% 4.2–6.2% 3.9–6.5%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 4.1% 3.6–4.8% 3.4–4.9% 3.3–5.1% 3.1–5.4%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.3% 1.9–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.1% 1.5–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 7 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–8
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4–5 3–5
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 3% 100%  
7 80% 97% Median
8 16% 16%  
9 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 20% 100%  
5 80% 80% Median
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.9% 100%  
4 95% 99.1% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 18% 100%  
2 82% 82% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 41% 100%  
2 59% 59% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 99.1% 99.2% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 62% 62% Median
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 35% 100%  
5 65% 65% Median
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 20% 100%  
5 80% 80% Median
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 18% 100%  
2 82% 82% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 41% 100%  
2 59% 59% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 99.1% 99.2% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations