Opinion Poll by Indikator for Sveriges Radio, 2–27 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 35.4% 34.0–36.8% 33.7–37.1% 33.3–37.5% 32.7–38.1%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 22.9% 21.7–24.1% 21.4–24.4% 21.1–24.8% 20.6–25.3%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 17.4% 16.4–18.5% 16.1–18.8% 15.8–19.1% 15.3–19.6%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 6.6% 5.9–7.3% 5.7–7.6% 5.6–7.8% 5.3–8.1%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 4.9% 4.3–5.6% 4.2–5.8% 4.0–5.9% 3.8–6.2%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.7% 4.1–5.4% 4.0–5.5% 3.9–5.7% 3.6–6.0%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 4.3% 3.8–5.0% 3.6–5.1% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.6%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–9 7–9
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 5 5–6 5–6 4–6
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 3–4 3–4
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 13% 100%  
8 82% 87% Median
9 4% 4%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 92% 98% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 96% 96% Median
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 64% 100% Median
2 36% 36%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100% Last Result
1 79% 79% Median
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 5 5–6 5–6 4–6
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 92% 98% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 25% 99.9%  
5 75% 75% Median
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 64% 100% Median
2 36% 36%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations