Opinion Poll by Verian for SVT, 27 October–9 November 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 33.8% 32.8–34.9% 32.4–35.2% 32.2–35.5% 31.7–36.0%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 20.0% 19.1–20.9% 18.9–21.2% 18.7–21.4% 18.2–21.9%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 18.5% 17.6–19.4% 17.4–19.7% 17.2–19.9% 16.8–20.3%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.4% 6.8–8.0% 6.7–8.2% 6.5–8.4% 6.3–8.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.9% 6.4–7.5% 6.2–7.7% 6.1–7.8% 5.8–8.1%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 4.9% 4.4–5.4% 4.3–5.6% 4.2–5.7% 4.0–6.0%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–5.0%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.9–2.6% 1.8–2.7% 1.7–2.8% 1.6–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–8
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 49% 100%  
8 51% 51% Median
9 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 64% 100% Median
5 36% 36%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 98% 100% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 94% 94% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 33% 100%  
2 67% 67% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 99.4% 99.4% Median
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result
1 51% 51% Median
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 47% 100%  
5 52% 53% Median
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 64% 100% Median
5 36% 36%  
6 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 33% 100%  
2 67% 67% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 94% 94% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 99.4% 99.4% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations