Opinion Poll by Novus for TV4, 3–16 November 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 34.3% 33.1–35.6% 32.7–36.0% 32.4–36.3% 31.8–36.9%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 21.0% 19.9–22.1% 19.6–22.4% 19.4–22.7% 18.9–23.3%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 19.4% 18.4–20.5% 18.1–20.8% 17.8–21.1% 17.4–21.6%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 6.3% 5.7–7.0% 5.5–7.2% 5.4–7.4% 5.1–7.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.4% 4.8–6.1% 4.7–6.2% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.7%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 5.1% 4.6–5.7% 4.4–5.9% 4.3–6.1% 4.0–6.4%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 3.7% 3.2–4.3% 3.1–4.4% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.9%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.9–2.7% 1.8–2.8% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 7–9
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 10% 100%  
8 84% 90% Median
9 6% 6%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 6% 100%  
5 93% 94% Median
6 0.8% 0.8%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 56% 100% Median
5 44% 44%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 63% 100% Median
2 37% 37%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 99.3% 99.6% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 27% 27%  
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 34% 100% Median
5 60% 66%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 6% 100%  
5 93% 94% Median
6 0.8% 0.8%  
7 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 63% 100% Median
2 37% 37%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 99.3% 99.6% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations