Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet, 15–24 November 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 33.0% 31.5–34.5% 31.1–34.9% 30.7–35.3% 30.0–36.1%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 21.3% 20.0–22.7% 19.7–23.1% 19.4–23.4% 18.8–24.1%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 18.1% 16.9–19.4% 16.6–19.8% 16.3–20.1% 15.7–20.7%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 6.6% 5.9–7.5% 5.7–7.8% 5.5–8.0% 5.2–8.4%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.4% 5.7–7.3% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.7% 5.0–8.1%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.7% 4.1–5.9% 4.0–6.1% 3.7–6.5%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 4.7% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.5–6.2%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 2.0–3.0% 1.8–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–8
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4–5 3–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.6% 100%  
7 64% 99.4% Median
8 36% 36%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 14% 100%  
5 85% 86% Median
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.7% 100%  
4 95% 99.3% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 47% 100%  
2 53% 53% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 69% 100% Median
2 31% 31%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 97% 98% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 93% 93% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 7% 100%  
5 90% 93% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 14% 100%  
5 85% 86% Median
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 69% 100% Median
2 31% 31%  
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 47% 100%  
2 53% 53% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 97% 98% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations