Opinion Poll by Novus for TV4, 1–14 December 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 34.1% 32.9–35.3% 32.6–35.7% 32.3–36.0% 31.7–36.6%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 23.7% 22.6–24.8% 22.3–25.1% 22.1–25.4% 21.6–25.9%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 17.6% 16.7–18.6% 16.4–18.9% 16.2–19.2% 15.7–19.6%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 6.2% 5.6–6.9% 5.5–7.1% 5.3–7.2% 5.1–7.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.1% 4.6–5.7% 4.4–5.9% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.3%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 4.9% 4.4–5.5% 4.3–5.7% 4.1–5.8% 3.9–6.1%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 3.9% 3.5–4.5% 3.3–4.6% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.0%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 2.1–2.9% 2.0–3.0% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–9 7–9
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 14% 100%  
8 83% 86% Median
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 59% 100% Median
6 41% 41%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 98% 99.6% Median
5 1.4% 1.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 72% 100% Median
2 28% 28%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 99.4% 99.6% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 98.9% 98.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 57% 100% Last Result, Median
1 43% 43%  
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 59% 100% Median
6 41% 41%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 56% 100% Median
5 44% 44%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 72% 100% Median
2 28% 28%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 98.9% 98.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 99.4% 99.6% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations