Opinion Poll by Indikator for Sveriges Radio, 3–27 December 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 35.2% 34.0–36.4% 33.7–36.7% 33.4–37.0% 32.9–37.6%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 21.4% 20.4–22.4% 20.1–22.7% 19.9–23.0% 19.4–23.5%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 18.4% 17.5–19.4% 17.2–19.7% 17.0–19.9% 16.6–20.4%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.1% 6.5–7.8% 6.3–7.9% 6.2–8.1% 5.9–8.4%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.4% 5.8–7.0% 5.7–7.2% 5.5–7.4% 5.3–7.7%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 3.9% 3.4–4.4% 3.3–4.6% 3.2–4.7% 3.0–4.9%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 3.8% 3.4–4.3% 3.3–4.5% 3.2–4.6% 3.0–4.9%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.1% 1.8–2.5% 1.7–2.6% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 8 7–9 7–9 7–9
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 10% 100%  
8 83% 90% Median
9 7% 7%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 7% 100%  
5 92% 93% Median
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 90% 99.9% Median
5 10% 10%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 19% 100%  
2 81% 81% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 69% 100% Median
2 31% 31%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Last Result, Median
1 42% 42%  
2 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 45% 45%  
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 49% 100% Median
5 50% 51%  
6 1.0% 1.0%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 7% 100%  
5 92% 93% Median
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 69% 100% Median
2 31% 31%  
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 19% 100%  
2 81% 81% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 45% 45%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations